In 2006, Michele Bachmann won a majority in the 6th District by a slim 308 votes. However, the minority was split between Patty Wetterling (D), John Binkowski (I), and various write in votes giving Bachmann a nearly 8% (24,104 actual votes) advantage over her nearest opponent.

This year, there are two factors that are significantly different than 2006 that could spell trouble for Bachmann more than any foolish statements ever could by themselves.

First, the Independence Party cross endorsed Tinklenberg over several other inside the party contenders. Bob Anderson won the Independence Party primary by default as he was the only person on the ballot and Tinklenberg was not allowed to be listed under both labels. Anderson has, as of yet, run a much quieter campaign than his predecessor, John Binkowski. This means, in all liklihood, that Tinklenberg will pick up a far larger percentage of people who voted for Binkowski last time which closes the 8% gap Bachmann enjoyed in the last election cycle.

Second, is the new write in candidacy of Republican Aubrey Immelman. This factor may hurt Bachmann even more than the lack of a viable Independence Party candidate as there is a large contingent of party line voters in the 6th District as expressed by the research of Jeff Rosenberg. In the primary, Immelman drew over 3,000 voters despite a relatively underground campaign and could potentially draw an equal number as a write in candidate. It is exceedingly difficult, especially with a less than commonplace name, to actually get votes to properly register in his favor but Immelman could still cut seriously into the base of support held by Bachmann. His hope is to have a referendum on the Bachmann tenure from a Republican perspective:

Immelman lost to Bachmann in the Republican primary in September. He says the one thing he will not do is ask Democrats to vote for him. He says he wants his candidacy to be a Republican referendum on Bachmann and the direction the party has taken the country.

The party line tendencies of the district make Immelman dangerous to Bachmann as those Republicans unhappy with her and the party in general have a party label candidate whom they can support.

Obviously, this all represents conjecture and theory but the recent statements made by Bachmann appear to have people on the right and the left lining up against her. It will take a ton of work on the part of the Tinklenberg Campaign to translate their cash flow into votes but the stars appear to be aligning themselves in his favor and against Michele Bachmann. If Anderson continues to run a relatively non-existent campaign and Immelman can get the word out that there is a less crazy Republican alternative out there the 6th District of Minnesota there is better than average chance that we will have Bachmann DUMPED.

Cross Posted on Dump Bachmann