Jeff Rosenberg over at The Twin Cities Daily Liberal is currently going district by district in Minnesota and providing detailed analysis of voting patterns on a precinct level. Today he rolled out his analysis of the 6th District:
In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we finally get to a race with a serious Congressional campaign -- the 6th Congressional District. CD6 is the former district of Republican Mark Kennedy and currently held by Republican Michele Bachmann. Elwyn Tinklenberg, a moderate Democrat, is challenging Bachmann for the seat. RealClearPolitics recently called Bachmann one of the most endangered representatives in the country, and but CD6's conservative voting patterns mean a tough race for Tinklenberg. Handicapper Stuart Rothenberg labels the race "favored Republican".
The district voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2006, and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5. Almost all of the precincts in the district, except those in the southeastern corner, voted Republican in 2006. However, less than half voted heavily (60% or more) for Republicans, which may indicate an opportunity for Tinklenberg to pick up some votes. MNPublius noted that being cross-endorsed by the Independence Party should help Tinklenberg close the gap. Al Franken, who is more liberal than Tinklenberg, should expect trouble in this district.
I agree that Tinklenberg has a difficult road ahead of him and it is made even more difficult with the massive amounts of money support Michele Bachmann is getting from her colleagues in the Republican Party. The Energy Tour taken by the Tinklenberg was an excellent first step in demonstrating that he is part of the solution for the future while Bachmann remains the same tired rhetoric of the past. However, I would add that the issue the Tinklenberg Campaign should be hammering home time and time again is the fact that Bachmann remains persona non grata here in the district. In her 18 months in office we have seen exactly nothing in the way of face to face constituent service and even in this campaign season she appears to be running a campaign for the 6th District everywhere EXCEPT the 6th District.
The one interesting factor Rosenberg brings up in his analysis is the enthusiasm factor. This is a relatively partisan and relatively conservative district but in conservative circles there is not a lot of excitement for John McCain who is considered conservative light. In fact, there was a bit of a scuffle at the Republican Convention here in the district when Ron Paul supporters successfully engineered a takeover of delegates. Bachmann herself has made the claim that McCain is not her nominee. So, how will this enthusiasm factor play in the district? If Tinklenberg can tap into this enthusiasm the potential is there for an upset in November. I encourage you to go and read the whole thing and look at the various maps created by Mr. Rosenberg.
The one interesting factor Rosenberg brings up in his analysis is the enthusiasm factor. This is a relatively partisan and relatively conservative district but in conservative circles there is not a lot of excitement for John McCain who is considered conservative light. In fact, there was a bit of a scuffle at the Republican Convention here in the district when Ron Paul supporters successfully engineered a takeover of delegates. Bachmann herself has made the claim that McCain is not her nominee. So, how will this enthusiasm factor play in the district? If Tinklenberg can tap into this enthusiasm the potential is there for an upset in November. I encourage you to go and read the whole thing and look at the various maps created by Mr. Rosenberg.
