10:30 PM | Posted in , ,
So I was on the Air America (AM 950) Tuesday for a short segment discussing the 6th District. While I was able to address a few things about the race, there are a couple of points I feel the need to point out.

Currently, we have three confirmed candidates for the DFL in Elwyn Tinklenberg, Maureen Reed, and Tarryl Clark. The last few days have seen quite a lot of chatter throughout the blogosphere about this district and this particular race. In that chatter and in the chatter from my personal sources there seems to be a few themes:

1. With Maureen Reed, every indication I am hearing is that apart from her large fund raising numbers she is dead in the water. Don't get me wrong, I like Dr. Reed and would have no trouble supporting her but for one reason or another the people I have contacts with have already counted her out of the endorsement. Does this mean that Reed is really gunning for the IP candidacy? Will she abide by the DFL endorsement? If she were to lose that endorsement, then will she run as an IP candidate or put her name on the DFL primary ballot?

2. Elwyn Tinklenberg appears to have two hurdles to overcome: First, to convince people throughout the district who recall that big blue paw print on his '08 campaign site touting the endorsement by the Blue Dog Coalition that he is NO LONGER a Blue Dog Democrat. Second, much like Reed, there are increasingly loud questions about why he has chosen to ignore the DFL endorsement and take this race to a primary. All of my sources who might have supported him before are abandoning ship because of this decision. Why would Mr. Tinklenberg tell the entire DFL establishment in the district that he will ignore their decision? Could I support Tinklenberg? Sure, but right now his answers to these questions concern me.

3. Tarryl Clark, from EVERYTHING I am hearing, is the early leader in the initial endorsement process. Her one disadvantage might be her initial fund raising which will have to catch up with her competitors. As she has not been very public yet I do not know what her stance is on honoring the endorsement process but given the questions surrounding Reed and Tinklenberg it would interesting to hear what she intends.

UPDATE: h/t to Blue Man on this one...

The Clark website is up with a youtube video message:



Clark makes it clear in the video that she WILL abide by the DFL endorsement which could be an indication that she has called around the district and all but locked up the delegates she needs to win.


At this point I refuse to endorse any particular candidate and would like to see an honest process with each candidate answering this simple question: What makes YOU the best DFL candidate to win the endorsement and win the district?

Comments (20)

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From that last poll you created (last week or so) Reed seems to have plenty of online support. I also hear support from people I've talked with in the district, and obviously many, many people have agreed she is worth donating to, and that is definitely something!

She has appeal and legitimacy across parties because of her extensive experience and the energy she brings to the campaign. She is really the person to beat Michele, and out of the three, the only one who can do it.
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2 replies · active 817 weeks ago
It is true that Dr. Reed appears to have considerable online support as evidenced by that poll:

http://liberalinthelandofconservative.blogspot.co...

It is also true that her fund raising efforts thus far have been nothing short of awesome. What I was saying is that amongst the DFL activists I speak with she is at best a second option. Now I don't have so many connections that I could definitively count her out but they are some fairly influential voices.

As I said in the post, though, I do really like Dr. Reed and could easily see myself supporting her.
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DEMOCRATS WILL SCREW IT UP AGAIN - REPUBLICANS WIN!

There seems to be more than just a little bit of effort to get Reed elected. Even in her candidacy right now, people are talking about her in the race. That says something considering she hasn't placed her name in the political area before and doesn't have the Barack Obama affect going for her political career.

Reed might just be the best candidate because when you look at why she is succeeding, it is because she has the right stuff for the job. Looking past the try, try again attitude of Tinklenberg or the popularity of Tarryl. Reed is the candidate of actual ground that has a chance to win and won't be hung by her political record.

For the Democrats really, that is the best strategy. I don't assume the democrats will be that intelligent although, so look for Republican Michelle Bachmen to hold her seat another time as the Democrats pick Tinklenberg and Reed pulls a decent amount of the vote as the Independent.
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Mostly, I feel it is too early to tell. The nature of the DFL endorsement process is so fickle, so at the whim of the delegate structure, and--most pertinently--so far away, that I feel calling anyone's chances "dead" or "in the lead" is naive. At a glance, however, if I were to say anyone's chances were low, it would be Tinklenberg. From the online chatter, it appears that very few people are excited about him as a candidate, and--as you pointed out-- there seems to be a great deal of anger regarding him already refusing to abide by the DFL endorsement. His fundraising thus far has been negligible. And very few people seem willing to back someone who has failed twice.

I understand the excitement about Tarryl as a candidate. She's a rising star within the party, and she has high name recognition within certain parts of the 6th. To the democratic base in the 6th, she is an incredibly appealing candidate. And for that reason, it makes sense that people think she will win the DFL endorsement. But, I'm sorry, in the 6th, turning out the democratic base isn't going to beat Bachmann. We need a candidate who will appeal to moderates and disaffected Republicans and Tarryl will get hung by her legislative record, specifically her votes with regards to taxation.

Again, it is too early to tell for sure, but I strongly feel Dr. Reed is the only candidate who has thrown her hat in the ring who has a shot at beating Bachmann in the general. She is a genuine moderate, and as indicated by her online activity and fundraising, she is running a solid campaign and generating a great deal of excitement and activism. When we consider who should win the endorsement, we have to consider who will have the best shot at winning the general election. Right now, I feel the candidate with the best chances is Reed.
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Voters in the Sixth will gravitate to Dr. Reed because of her professional qualifications. Clark was just some legal aid attorney and head of some crybaby group for something called "Community Actions Agencies" whatever those are. And a state senator known for criticizing Governor Pawlenty as he tried to balance the budget.

When it comes to health care, we need people with the leadership to say NO to those who wnat medical procedures that are inefficient. ONLY Dr. Reed, as the medical director of one of the most successful HMOs in he country, has been on the firing line directly telling greedy physicians and their malingering patients who are out to game the health care system!
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1 reply · active 817 weeks ago
I'm also supporting Maureen, but I don't think insulting people is the way to help her cause. Reed has the bona fides to bring unequaled experience to the health care debate on the hill, but you really shouldn't detract from others' accomplishments either.
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Yep...a cry baby group

http://www.mncaa.org/

Community Action Agencies

Help people move up in their career ladder (through jobtraining, job search, and career development services);

Keep people warm and dry (through energy assistance and weatherization services);

Help the unemployed find work (through job training and application assistance);

Help families and seniors put food on the table (through food shelves and nutrition programs);

Give young children a healthy, (through WIC, Head Start, crisis nursery, and child care programs);

Help in times of crisis (through emergency housing and financial assistance, counseling, and crisis nursery services);

Advocate for policy solutions that eliminate poverty in Minnesota.
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Calling Dr. Reed "dead in the water" is laughable. She is the fundraising leader, grossing over $230,000 in eight weeks, and for those of you who think fundraising doesn't matter...A dumb dollar beats a smart dime every time. More importantly, Dr. Reed has the most experience across the board, and the most experience in topics that are of concern to district voters right now including health care and education. When it comes time to unseat Bachmann, I am going to be honest, Tinklenberg and Clark will lose. We need a strong woman with stronger credentials. Maureen Reed is that woman.
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I like Dr. Reed but when I see statements like this: "She is a genuine moderate", I run the other direction. Look what the 'moderates' are doing to the Health Care Bill. I certainly don't want to elect another moderate blue dog in Congress. As far as Tinklenberg is concerned he has gone from a conservative democrate, to a blue dog democrat to now being a progressive democrat? How many times can a leopard change his spots???? So, for these reasons and a few more my inclination is to support Tarryl Clark.
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1 reply · active 817 weeks ago
Maureen is moderate in the sense that she doesn't feel obligated to toe the party line, I think. I don't think she feels ideologically obligated to back every single "democratic" proposal simply out of party loyalty, I think she's the type of person who educates herself about a subject then makes an informed decision, which is really what one would want to see in their representation. A thoughtful representative, NOT someone who comes to every issue with unmalleable ideas written in stone.

Also, regarding health care, she has extensive knowledge and experience working in MN health care, which is by and far, the best in the country re: cost, coverage and outcomes. She was the head of the group that spawned community measurements, I seriously doubt she'll be "just another blue dog democrat on health care".
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In any other district in the state, Tarryl Clark would be a strong contender to win the seat, but not in the 6th. You can't just pull support from the DFL base and expect to win especially with the strong third party vote in the mix. It is necessary to get all of the DFL vote, a majority of the IP's and a good crossover of Republicans to win this district. I think that Republicans would rather keep her even though she is an embarrassment rather than vote in favor of a strong DFLer.

As for Tinklenberg, he's had two chances now to prove that he could beat Bachmann and it hasn't happened. A lot of people are fed up with him as he seems to be doing anything to win. (changing his ideology and hiring Dana Houle, who is extremely divisive, as his campaign manager). Personally, I think two times is enough.
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1 reply · active 817 weeks ago
So how did Amy Klobuchar best Mark Kennedy in such a conservative district? Clark is the only one out of the three to actually win something in the 6th already. You are right to call out Tinklenberg on yet another ideology change. He runs with the Blue Dogs (which is fine) in 06 and 08, and now shuns the title? Look at changes to his positions on the Iraq War, Same-sex marriage, etc. He changes his tune quite often.

I see Reed as a wild card here, but I do wonder if she is a one trick pony (health care, understanding her role as a U of M Regent)
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On Clark
What's up with the Clark website? Salsa? Clark won't have fun putting this on her literature: http://dlcc.wiredforchange.com/o/6460/t/3379/cont...

For important videos, I'd like to see her wear a suit. But maybe she knows the district and everyone wears t-shirts.

The website image: She's surrounded by people, but are any looking at her? Perhaps she wants another photo.

Dr. Reed
Makes me nervous since she crossed the line and ran as an Independent. In my opinion, that move makes it clear she doesn't really get 'running for office and how we get there'. Independents usually end up only helping the party they least like. SHE'S the one that has to prove something.

El Tinklenberg
Probably knows his district better by now and at least has name recognition. Not everyone in the district will know Clark. If I were El, I'd call myself T-Berg and I'd talk about how I supports family values, want to end painful discrimination, realize that strong families means a strong America, and that I am listening and want people to reach me. Plus I would tell people I have a strong faith and I believe it is important not to discriminate against, or hurt, others.

I'm trying to remember if there was a lot of buzz about T-Berg. I didn't hear much down here and I'm wondering if the new campaign manager will use his blog correctly. Hopefully it won't be a "this is what is wrong with Bachmann" blog. I don't even know Tinklenberg at all, and I'd like to get to know him more.

--->ON another note (and this is lame, I suppose): I know the 6th goes all the way west to about Paynesville. Does the 6th also wrap all the way around the cities, and include that stretch of 35 that has Sean Hannity etc. AM1500 billboards? If so, I'd like to see some DFLer put up a few billboards with a smiling face and "Strong Families means a Strong America" or something like that. Something nice to look at while driving north. Good Lord, it's a vomit stretch to dive it, now.
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oops, there I go again. Strong Families mean a Strong America. and support. Typo city this AM! Eeks!
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LITLOC Fan's avatar

LITLOC Fan · 817 weeks ago

Maureen Reed is the trickiest one for me to figure out right now. For Reed, will being the director of an HMO be a benefit? Large health care organizations are not real popular right now. Also, a previous poster said she had the most experience with education issues. She'll tell you herself (she told me) that she's not too up on Early Childhood through grade 12, just higher ed. You could argue that since Clark has been in the legislature setting educational policy and budgets, she has wider educational experience than Reed.

Now the fact that she told me that, means she is making connections with people who have been delegates in the past, and that bodes well. She is working like she wants the endorsement. So is Tarryl, she's called me as many times as Reed has in just the last two weeks.

El has yet to connect with me, which is surprising since he called me early the last two times he ran. I hope his hotshot campaign manager doesn't think he'll win the sixth on the blogosphere - our voters still poll as getting a lot of their information via the grapevine and coffee shop chats out here. I love all you little bloggers, but you still win more votes in the sixth at chicken dinners than online.
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Tinklenberg should consider this race a little more as far as I'm concerned. He only received support last time since people dislike Bachmann so much. But Reed really seems like a candidate that can relate to the people much better than the other candidates and hopefully that quality, along with her fundraising, will push her through to the nomination.
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MinnesotaBulldog's avatar

MinnesotaBulldog · 817 weeks ago

I'm really not keen on putting my time and effort into electing a blue dog: they're as bad as Republicans in my opinion. That El was endorsed by the Blue Dogs last time makes me nervous. I know, Dana says he's not joining them. I'd find that more credible if he said what made him change his mind from 08 about that. But El is on the record for support of the public option, which is good. Disappointing fundraising and disappointing website, which is true for all three candidates really. No issue information. Tarryl just got in, so I'm more than willing to give her and to a lesser extent the others to put some actual meat out there. This arguing over who fits the district is silly: let's get down to brass tacks. What do you care about and what will you fight for?

Maureen was evasive at a recent meeting: wouldn't state much about what she actually supported, wouldn't state if she would abide, didn't have a position on EFCA, etc. I know she wants to reform health care, but what does she mean by that? I'm not thrilled with the idea of putting a HMO executive in charge of reforming health care, unless she pulls a Wendell Potter and tells us about all the horrible things she's seen insurance companies do from the inside.

I would be thrilled to help someone who not only can beat Bachmann but who has strong stances and will fight for them.

I'm encouraged by Tarryl. I like that she will abide, she's a good speaker and good at articulating DFL positions.

All three are nice people. All three are smart people. Money is important, campaign staff are important, but what's most important is having a good message with good policies that are argued effectively. It's not enough to just be against BachmannL let's hear what you are for, and not just in generic terms: put some meat on the bones.
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It's 15 months to the election, I think Clark and Reed both deserve some time to expand their policy positions. Tinklenberg on the other hand has had 5 years...
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Wellstonedem's avatar

Wellstonedem · 817 weeks ago

I've been told that Clark will abide by the endorsement. I talked with Reed by phone, she did not commit to a public option for health care. Tinklenberg has not called me, despite my having been a delegate for him, a volunteer for him, and a decent level donor. Given the above, at this time I'm supporting Clark.
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